SANDRACER.COM ~ ALL WEATHER RACING BLOG

Southwell AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the AW code at Southwell on this evening's 8 race card that features 6 handicaps and 2 stakes races, in as few words as possible.

---

❖ Jockeys ❖ I'll be focusing on the horses ridden by Hector Crouch (𝕏).

---

❖ Trainers ❖ Bit of a mixed line up. Probably due to the other card this evening is also an AW meeting (Wolverhampton) ~ so I'll not focus on trainers for this racecard.

---

❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

---

❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• Anything ridden by Hector Crouch
• Solid Southwell C&D form may be a good pointer this evening
• I will be focusing on handicaps only

---

Southwell AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey HECTOR CROUCH

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 2 Sep 2025 7:00 Southwell Handicap 1m Jack Jones ANNSAR ✅
• 2 Sep 2025 7:30 Southwell Handicap 1m Ralph Beckett RUN WITH IT
• 2 Sep 2025 8:00 Southwell Handicap 6f James Tait STANLEY SPENCER ✅

---

Southwell Betting Analysis

7:00 Southwell ❖ 1m C4 Fillies Hcp ❖ Annsar (12/1) is upped in trip for today's run.

Conclusion: The 12/1 on offer is understandable as she's an unknown quantity at the level over the trip. I think her running style could suit the extra furlong. I'll take the plunge at the odds on offer she can surprise the field.

7:00 South ~ Win Bet: 12/1 Annsar (Unplaced 12/1)

---

7:30 Southwell ❖ 1m C4 Hcp ❖ 5/2fav Run With It won well last time out at Wolverhampton over an extra half a furlong

Conclusion: Run With It (5/2f) may well win, but he's upped in grade and has 4lb extra to carry. At the price I'll watch.

# No Bet.

---

8:00 Southwell ❖ 6f C4 Hcp ❖ Stanley Spencer (7/1) run over the C&D in february will put him right up there if he repeats it.

Conclusion: Stanley Spencer (7/1) under Hector Crouch could well improve the 3/4l he needs to win this outright. He also carries a 1lb less, which could possibly make all the difference in a close race. At the price on offer, I'll chance it.

8:00 South ~ Win Bet: 7/1 Stanley Spencer (Won 11/2)

---

Wolverhampton AW Code Breaker

I will be trying to crack the Wolverhampton AW code on this evening's 8 race card, which features a maiden, a classified stakes race and 6 handicaps, in as few words as possible.

---

❖ Draw Bias ❖ Low draw essential at Wolverhampton, pretty much every distance, one way or another.

---

❖ Jockeys ❖ Today it's the old warhorse Luke Morris (𝕏) and the excellent youngster Billy Loughnane (𝕏). Both ride Wolverhampton's quirky AW course very well.

---

Wolverhampton AW Jockey Quick Statistics

Jockey BILLY LOUGHNANE

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Horse | Trainer
• 2 Sep 2025 5:45 Wolverhampton Maiden 7f George Boughey LIKENESS
• 2 Sep 2025 6:15 Wolverhampton Stakes 1m Harry Charlton POLYGRAM
• 2 Sep 2025 6:45 Wolverhampton Handicap 1m 1f David Menuisier ROMANTIC SPIRIT ✅
• 2 Sep 2025 7:15 Wolverhampton Handicap 5f Mark Loughnane BEAUMADIER
• 2 Sep 2025 7:45 Wolverhampton Handicap 1m 1f Hughie Morrison MYTHICAL BIRD
• 2 Sep 2025 8:15 Wolverhampton Handicap 1m 4f Fionn McSharry BERKSHIRE PHANTOM
• 2 Sep 2025 8:45 Wolverhampton Handicap 6f Ivan Furtado MACARONE

Jockey LUKE MORRIS

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Horse | Trainer
• 2 Sep 2025 5:45 Wolverhampton Maiden 7f Tom Clover UNIVERSAL SUCCESS
• 2 Sep 2025 6:15 Wolverhampton Stakes 1m Sir Mark Prescott ALMEKAREM
• 2 Sep 2025 6:45 Wolverhampton Handicap Sir Mark Prescott 1m 1f BAIKAL
• 2 Sep 2025 7:15 Wolverhampton Handicap 5f Joe Ponting COLORS OF FREEDOM ✅
• 2 Sep 2025 8:15 Wolverhampton Handicap 1m 4f Dean Ivory MOONLIT CLOUD

---

Wolverhampton Betting Analysis

6:45 Wolverhampton ❖ 9.5f C5 Fillies Hcp ❖ Romantic Spirit (4/1f) returns to the scene of her last win. A repeat performance will see her home here. Consistency is a problem with C6 performers, but hopefully Loughnane will get her at it from the getgo.

6:45 Wolv ~ Win Bet: 4/1f Romantic Spirit (3rd 11/2)

---

7:15 Wolverhampton ❖ 1m 4f C6 Hcp ❖ Colors Of Freedom (10/1) has the ability to nick this at a double figure price under Morris. Goes from stall 5, which gives her the advantage over the Loughnane horse and 11/4f Beaumadier, who runs from trap 7.

7:15 Wolv ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Colors Of Freedom (Unplaced 17/2)

---

8:15 Wolverhampton ❖ 1m 4f C6 Hcp ❖ Moonlit Cloud (12/1) (morris) and Berkshire Phantom (9/2) (loughnane) are both up against it draw wise. The presence of top jockeys will most likely not be enough to see either of them home in front. It's not impossible to win from out wide here, but I very rarely bet on it, especially in low grade handicaps.

# No Bet.

---

8:45 Wolverhampton ❖ 6f C6 Hcp ❖ Macarone (11/4f) is drawn in stall 9 in a 6f hcp. I refuse to back horses at Wolver over the sprints drawn out in the car park.

# No Bet.

Wolverhampton Results - sept 2 2025. Going: standard

17:10 1. 4 Sceptic 4/1 2. 3 Eden Storm 3/1F 3. 1 Francisco 11/2 Tote Win 5.30 Places 2.10, 1.40, 2.20 Exacta: 22.30 CSF: 16.68 Tricast: 66.19 Trifecta: 103.70 Winning Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh Winning Trainer: Ian Williams Distances: 1/2 length, 3 lengths Eden Storm 3/1 F 8 ran Non Runners 9	17:45 1. 3 Ghaadah 14/1 2. 8 Sydney Rock 15/2 3. 2 Callahan 15/2 Tote Win 15.00 Places 3.50, 1.70, 1.90 Exacta: 71.90 CSF: 113.55 Trifecta: 295.40 Winning Jockey: Harry Davies Winning Trainer: S & E Crisford Distances: 1 1/4 length, 1/2 length Likeness 7/4 F 9 ran Non Runners 9
18:15 1. 2 Almekarem 10/11F 2. 4 Cotiere 5/1 Tote Win 1.91 Places 1.10, 2.00 Exacta: 5.90 CSF: 6.16 Trifecta: 7.70 Winning Jockey: Luke Morris Winning Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Distances: 1/2 length Almekarem 10/11 F 5 ran Non Runners 6	18:45 1. 4 Baikal 13/2 2. 9 Little Miss India 7/1 3. 8 Romantic Spirit 11/2 Tote Win 7.50 Places 1.80, 2.90, 1.70 Exacta: 55.70 CSF: 51.56 Tricast: 268.81 Trifecta: 268.20 Winning Jockey: Luke Morris Winning Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Distances: 1 3/4 length, 1/2 length Tequila 5/1 F 10 ran
19:15 1. 3 Maris Angel 2/1F 2. 2 Jungle Dance 50/1 3. 1 Beaumadier 7/2 Tote Win 3.00 Places 1.30, 7.60, 1.70 Exacta: 108.30 CSF: 132.87 Tricast: 355.12 Trifecta: 601.90 Winning Jockey: Ryan Sexton Winning Trainer: Fionn McSharry Distances: 3 lengths, 1/2 length Maris Angel 2/1 F 10 ran	19:45 1. 5 Arbitration 9/2 2. 4 Bintalina 5/2F 3. 3 Mythical Bird 3/1 Tote Win 5.80 Places 1.70, 1.40, 1.40 Exacta: 17.90 CSF: 15.70 Tricast: 38.19 Trifecta: 67.60 Winning Jockey: Clifford Lee Winning Trainer: K R Burke Distances: 1 1/2 length, 2 lengths Bintalina 5/2 F 8 ran
20:15 1. 7 Rubellite 5/1 2. 1 Bunker Bay 28/1 3. 4 Berkshire Phantom 11/4F Tote Win 6.00 Places 2.00, 5.60, 1.50 Exacta: 118.70 CSF: 139.99 Tricast: 463.73 Trifecta: 610.60 Winning Jockey: O J Orr Winning Trainer: R A Fahey Distances: 1 1/4 length, 5 1/2 lengths Berkshire Phantom 11/4 F 10 ran	20:45 1. 5 Macarone 9/4F 2. 10 Eldeyaar 14/1 3. 9 Nordic Glory 13/2 Tote Win 3.25 Places 1.30, 3.20, 2.30 Exacta: 36.00 CSF: 37.75 Tricast: 189.84 Trifecta: 222.40 Winning Jockey: Billy Loughnane Winning Trainer: I Furtado Distances: 1/2 length, 2 lengths Macarone 9/4 F 10 ran Non Runners 8

Chelmsford AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the Chelmsford All Weather code for the saturday evening 6 race card starting at 5:40, in as few words as possible, is as follows.

---

❖ Jockeys ❖ Today I'll be looking at jockeys Pat Cosgrave ~ maybe he can follow up this week's win on Curahee.

---

❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations are zero at Chelmsford.

---

Chelmsford AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey PAT COSGRAVE

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 30 Aug 2025 7:10 Chelmsford City Nursery Hcp 5f Charlie Fellowes HENRYTHENATE
• 30 Aug 2025 8:10 Chelmsford City Handicap 1m 5f Charlie Fellowes BELAYA RIVER
• 30 Aug 2025 8:40 Chelmsford City Handicap 7f Stuart Williams AMERICAN TREASURE

---

Chelmsford Betting Analysis

7:10 Chelmsford ❖ 5f C5 Nursery Hcp. ❖ Henrythenate 10/1 ran well last time out and looked slightly unlucky. Gets a 3lb pull for a 2l defeat with Campanaerts and will be in with a shout at the death at a decent price.

7:10 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Henrythenate (Unp 5/1 from 10's)

---

8:10 Chelmsford ❖ 1m 5f C6 Hcp ❖ Belaya River 4/1 looks a bit short in the market price wise. I can't recommend him as a bet.

# No Bet.

---

8:40 Chelmsford ❖ 7f C6 Hcp ❖ American Treasure 16/1 looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper.

8:40 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 16/1 American Treasure (Unp 28/1)

---

Cracking The Lingfield AW Code

❖ Sat Aug 30 2025

Lingfield AW Code Breaker

Lingfield this evening is a 6 race card with a reasonable looking handicap in the last worth a look at. I will attempt to crack the Lingfield All Weather code in as few words as possible.

---

❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on today is top Irish jockey Paddy Bradley.

---

❖ Trainers ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye for today's meeting.

---

❖ Draw Bias ❖ No draw bias at Lingfield worthy of note. You want decent jockeys at Lingfield, not an inside or outside draw etc.

---

❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ Check out all of Paddy Bradley's rides.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

---

Lingfield AW Jockey Runners

Jockey PADDY BRADLEY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE
• 30 Aug 2025 5:55 Lingfield Stakes 5f Richard Hughes ROSE OF SPAIN
• 30 Aug 2025 6:25 Lingfield Stakes 7f J R Jenkins HOLD THE PRESS
• 30 Aug 2025 7:25 Lingfield Handicap 1m 4f Simon Dow SOY LOCO

---

Lingfield Betting Analysis

6:25 Lingfield ❖ 8f C5 3yo Hcp. Hold The Press (14/1) runs in and out formwise, but has the ability to nick this at a price if he's in the mood. I make him about a 7/1 shot, so I'll take my chances at the price to small stakes.

6:25 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 14/1 Hold The Press (Unp 14/1)

---

7:25 Lingfield ❖ 1m 4f C5 Hcp. Soy Loco 11/1 has shown a bit of promise previously. Down in mark and recently gelded, now upped in trip by a couple of furlongs. I think he's a lively outsider.

7:25 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 11/1 Soy Loco (Unp 10/1)

---

Cracking The Newcastle AW Code

❖ Fri Aug 29 2025

Newcastle AW Code Breaker

The All Weather bandwagon rolls into Newcastle this evening with a 7 race card. There are 5 handicaps to be looked at.

---

❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on is East London youngster Kaiya Fraser who has 1 ride in the 6:30.

---

❖ Trainer ❖ I think trainer Richard Fahey may be worth a second look this evening.

---

❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Newcastle is non existent, so nothing to see there.

---

Newcastle AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey KAIYA FRASER

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 29 Aug 2025 6:30 Newcastle Handicap 1m 2f Rebecca Menzies WEEGEEBEAR

---

Newcastle AW Trainer Statistics

Jockey RICHARD FAHEY

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Jockey | Horse
• 29 Aug 2025 6:00 Newcastle Handicap 1m 2f Oisin Orr SHAMARDAL STAR
• 29 Aug 2025 7:00 Newcastle Nursery Hcp 6f Ethan Tindall BRIMFULOFATTITUDE
• 29 Aug 2025 8:00 Newcastle Handicap 7f Oisin Orr FLYING FLETCHER
• 29 Aug 2025 8:30 Newcastle Novice Stakes 6f Oisin Orr KOMORKIS

---

Newcastle Betting Analysis

6:00 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C6 Hcp ❖ Shamardal Star (5/2f) is certainly on a friendly mark right now.

Conclusion: Impossible to back with any confidence. The 5/2 on offer is miserable. May well win based on 1 piece of form from Dec 28 2024 over the C&D from 10lb higher, beaten 8 lengths ~ but 5/2 favourite? No thanks.

# No Bet

---

6:30 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C6 Hcp ❖ Weegeebear 9/2 has enough Irish form in the book to make him a major player against these.

Conclusion: The 9/2 is a reasonable price with Kaiya Fraser aboard. The extra furlong will probably help the horse, so I think I'll take the plunge on him first time up over this distance. His form at Dundalk proves the AW surface should be of no concern first time of trying it here in England.

6:30 Newc ~ Win Bet: 9/2 Weegeebear (Unp 17/2)

---

8:00 Newcastle ❖ 7f C5 Hcp ❖ Flying Fletcher 2/1f has some decent Newc AW form in the book ~ enough to make him a solid favourite for this race.

Conclusion: Won here over the C&D a stone higher than today's mark. This C5 represents a drop in class, so he just gets in at topweight. I wouldn't want to lay him at evens to be honest.

8:00 Newc ~ Win Bet: 2/1f Flying Fletcher (Unp 2/1f)

---

Southwell AW Code Breaker

My attempt to crack the AW code at Southwell this evening takes me to the 6th and last day of the £2m Racing League. The racing becomes alot more competetive when there's better prize money. Picking out winners becomes more difficult, but that's the game.

---

❖ Jockeys ❖ I'll be focusing on the horses ridden by Jason Hart. Also, after a quick look at the stats ~ Daniel Muscutt comes into the spotlight for me this evening.

---

❖ Trainers ❖ Very strong line up trainer~wise this evening. Hence, no one stands out as worth focusing on specifically.

---

❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Southwell is non existent. Back who you like wherever they're drawn. If backing any front runners, pay close attention to whether they'll actually get home up the slightly uphill 1.5f finish.

---

❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• Anything ridden by Daniel Muscutt or Jason Hart
• Solid Southwell C&D form may be a good pointer this evening
• I will be focusing on handicaps only

---

Southwell AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey DANIEL MUSCUTT

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 28 Aug 2025 6:15 Southwell Handicap 7f James Fanshawe PHILANTHROPIST
• 28 Aug 2025 6:45 Southwell Handicap 6f Gemma Tutty ORMOLULU
• 28 Aug 2025 7:45 Southwell Handicap 1m David Evans BLUE PRINCE
• 28 Aug 2025 8:15 Southwell Handicap 1m 3f James Fanshawe CHARMAINE

Jockey JASON HART

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse
• 28 Aug 2025 5:45 Southwell Handicap 1m 4f B F Brookhouse SECRET BEACH (Non Runner)
• 28 Aug 2025 8:15 Southwell Handicap 1m 3f J S Quinn LIBERTY COACH

---

Southwell Betting Analysis

6:15 Southwell ❖ 7f C4 Hcp ❖ Muscutt's rides Philanthropist (3/1f) who was a slightly unlucky loser last time out over the C&D.

Conclusion: The 3/1 on offer looks reasonable to me. He will be rattling home and looks the most likely to prevail. He's not nailed on, which is why you can get 3/1 currently. I think he'll win tonight.

6:15 South ~ Win Bet: 3/1f Philanthropist (3rd 3/1)

---

6:45 Southwell ❖ 6f C4 Hcp ❖ 3/1fav Ormululu has an obvious chance with Muscutt aboard.

Conclusion: Ormululu (3/1f) is a bet I will pass up. Her tardy starting will almost certainly cost her the race. Arguably this is a drop in class for today, but something is still very likely going to hold her off at the death.

# No Bet.

---

7:45 Southwell ❖ 1m C3 Hcp ❖ Blue Prince 18/1 is a lively outsider.

Conclusion: Blue Prince 18/1 is a danger to them all at a price, but I need a little more evidence that he can actually do a mile. The 8f trip seems to be just beyond him, but I would not be surprised to see him rattle past them late with the aid of Muscutt up top.

# No Bet

---

8:15 Southwell ❖ 1m 3f C3 Hcp ❖ Liberty Coach (10/1) with Hart aboard looks to me, to have a better chance of winning that Muscutt's Charmaine (9/2).

Conclusion: Liberty Coach (10/1) has been pretty much discounted as a winning prospect, but I think the extra furlong won't be a problem. He was running off of 17lb lower this time last year, so he's on the up and it is possible the mark of 91 is not beyond him. At the price, I'll play.

8:15 South ~ Win Bet: 10/1 Liberty Coach (Unp 9/1)

---