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Chelmsford AW Code Breaker

We have a second meeting on the AW this thursday evening at Chelmsford. An 8 race card with 6 handicaps to try to pick a winner from. Tow of the handicaps are 2yo nurseries. My attempt to Crack The Chelmsford All Weather Code in as few words as possible, is as follows.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockes to follow this evening, has to be Hector Crouch (𝕏) who has a decent strike (23.8%) here this season. He has 5 rides.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations are zero at Chelmsford.

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Chelmsford AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey HECTOR CROUCH

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE | ✅ Denotes Selection |
• 6 Nov 2025 5:45 Chelmsford City 2yo Novice Stakes 1m Michael Bell TIMBER TWELVE
• 6 Nov 2025 6:15 Chelmsford City Handicap 1m David O'Meara RAJAPOUR ✅
• 6 Nov 2025 7:15 Chelmsford City Handicap 6f Jamie Osborne WODAO ✅
• 6 Nov 2025 7:45 Chelmsford City Handicap 5f Rae Guest HEAVEN KNOWS
• 6 Nov 2025 8:15 Chelmsford City Handicap 1m 2f Darryll Holland LOVE YOUR WORK

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Chelmsford Betting Analysis

6:15 Chelmsford ❖ 1m C4 Hcp. ❖ Rajapour (5/1) will appreciate the drop back to a mile. The most winnable set of race conditions he's faced since arriving from France with a reasonable record. Now running at 11lb lower than his UK best, will take all the beating with Crouch in the saddle for the first time.

6:15 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 5/1 Rajapour (Unp 7/2)

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7:15 Chelmsford ❖ 6f C4 Hcp. ❖ Wadao (16/1) has been discounted by ther bookies judging by the price. I say that, but he was available at 33's overnight, so some punters have noticed, seeing his price has halved.

Running at 20lb+ below his best, he'll be right there at the end of the race, pushing for the win under Hector Crouch.

7:15 Chelmsford ~ Win Bet: 16/1 Wadao (unp 18/1)

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Cracking The Newcastle AW Code

❖ Thursday November 6 2025

❖ We Study The Racing Stats @ The Adrian Massey.com Horse Racing Database

Newcastle AW Code Breaker

This afternoon's AW meeting is 9 race card from Newcastle. 7 of the races are handicaps for me to look at ~ two are nursery handicaps for 2yo horses. I will be attempting to Crack The All Weather Code At Newcastle in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ For this afternoon's's meeting I will be focusing on anything ridden by 43yr old PJ McDonald (𝕏) ~ he has 4 rides this afternoon.

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❖ Trainer ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ The draw bias at Newcastle is non existent, especially on the straight course, so nothing to see there.

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Newcastle AW Jockey Statistics

Jockey PJ McDONALD

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse | ✅ Denotes Selection |
• 6 Nov 2025 2:45 Newcastle 2yo Nursery Handicap 7f James Ferguson LORD CLOUGHAN
• 6 Nov 2025 3:20 Newcastle Handicap 1m 2f Jedd O'Keefe PERCY WILLIS ✅
• 6 Nov 2025 4:30 Newcastle 2yo Novice Stakes 1m Andrew Balding ROKER ROAR
• 6 Nov 2025 5:00 Newcastle Handicap 5f Paul Midgely LETHAL NYMPH ✅

Multibet Players: A small stakes win yankee is not the worst bet in the world for Mulrennan's 4 rides as noted above this evening.

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Newcastle Betting Analysis

3:20 Newcastle ❖ 1m 2f C5 Hcp ❖ Percy Willis (20/1) is way overpriced. Has some reasonable runs in his Newcastle form. Dangerous to them all with McDonald taking the ride again today.

3:20 Newc ~ Win Bet: 20/1 Percy Willis (3rd 25/1)

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5:00 Newcastle ❖ 5f C4 Hcp ❖ Lethal Nymph (5/1) is in good form and this looks like one of his least competetive races for a good while. Goes well for McDonald.

5:00 Newc ~ Win Bet: 5/1 Lethal Nymph (Won 4/1)

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2 meetings on the All Weather circuit for tomorrow evening.

Looking at the AWR schedule, we have ❯ 6th November 2025 ❯

• ❖ Chelmsford City (Evening) (All Weather) (Flat) | Racecards |
• ❖ Newcastle (Evening/Twilight) (All Weather) (Flat) | Racecards |

The Newcastle meeting is arguably an afternoon meeting, starting at 2:10. Let's call it twilight. I hope to can catch a winner or two. Bust that AW Code. Cheers, good luck out there.

Kempton AW Code Breaker

Kempton host today's AW racing this afternoon on a 9 race card. 5 races are handicaps.

I will attempt to Crack The Kempton Park All Weather code in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ I will be looking to solid young jockey Billy Loughnane to find me a winner. He rides Kempton particularly well.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Draw considerations come into play sharply at Kempton. I will be looking for a low draw (1~5) in all races up to a mile.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ If anything Billy Loughnane is riding is well drawn, give it a very close look on form.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Kempton AW Jockey Runners

Jockey BILLY LOUGHNANE

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE | ✅ Denotes Selection |
• 5 Nov 2025 2:20 Kempton Handicap 1m Adrian Wintle REVICH ✅
• 5 Nov 2025 2:50 Kempton 2yo Fillies Maiden 1m Hughie Morrison STELLAR WORLD
• 5 Nov 2025 3:55 Kempton 2yo Novice Stakes 7f Goerge Boughey WORLINGTON
• 5 Nov 2025 4:30 Kempton 2yo Novice Stakes 7f Goerge Boughey AMBER HAMUR
• 5 Nov 2025 5:00 Kempton Handicap 7f Mark Loughnane FOLLOW YOUR HEART
• 5 Nov 2025 5:30 Kempton Handicap 6f James Fanshawe HEATHCLIFF ✅
• 5 Nov 2025 6:00 Kempton Handicap 6f Mark Loughnane HALLOWED TIME
• 5 Nov 2025 6:30 Kempton Fillies Handicap 1m 3f Dr Newland VERAISON

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Kempton Betting Analysis

2:20 Kempton ❖ 1m C6 Handicap ❖ Revich (6/1) used to run off 98 ~ he's now down to 60. Billy Loughnane will be looking to get this 9 year old across the line with his head in front.

He threatened a form revival last time out, so this C6 hcp is well withing his scope.

2:20 Kempton ~ Win Bet: 6/1 Revich (4th 9/2)

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5:30 Kempton ❖ 6f C2 Handicap ❖ Heathcliff (7/2) will be right there at this finish in this C2 hcp. Has decent form figures here on Kempton's AW track. Loughnane will do the business.

5:30 Kempton ~ Win Bet: 7/2 Heathcliff (2nd 5/1)

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Wolverhampton AW Code Breaker

I will be trying to Crack The Wolverhampton AW code on tonight's 8 race card, which features 6 handicaps, one of which is a 2yo nursery hcp, in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The experienced jockey Hector Crouch (𝕏) has had a particularly good record this year at Wolverhampton. It's a quirky track to ride and it's handy to have a jockey on board that knows what he's doing.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ Low draw is essential at Wolverhampton, pretty much every distance, one way or another.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ Give all Hector Crouch rides an uber close up look on form.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Wolverhampton AW Jockey Quick Statistics

Jockey HECTOR CROUCH

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | Horse | ✅ Denotes Selection |
• 4 Nov 2025 4:25 Wolverhampton 2yo Fillies Maiden 7f Owen Burrows RITAAL
• 4 Nov 2025 5:30 Wolverhampton Handicap Ralf Beckett 1m 4f LIKEALOT
• 4 Nov 2025 6:30 Wolverhampton Handicap 1m 1f Ruth Carr MAGIC RUNNER ✅

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Wolverhampton Betting Analysis

6:30 Wolverhampton ❖ 1m 1f C6 Hcp ❖ Magic Runner (16/1) has run well in the past over the C&D from this kind of mark. Looks a bit overpriced to me.

6:30 Wolver ~ Win Bet: 16/1 Magic Runner (3rd 16/1)

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Wolverhampton Results - Tuesday November 4 2025. Going: standard

14:52 1. 3 Naughty Niall 4/1 2. 7 Rampant 20/1 3. 4 Ten Ten Twenty 11/1 Tote Win 5.00 Places 1.70, 3.50, 2.90 Exacta: 28.90 CSF: 90.29 Tricast: 847.40 Trifecta: 392.80 Winning Jockey: Toby Moore Winning Trainer: Ian Williams Distances: Short Head, 1 1/4 length Knight Of Magic 5/4 F 12 ran	15:22 1. 1 Maris Angel 9/4F 2. 10 Zoulu Warrior 7/2 3. 8 Good Earth 10/1 Tote Win 3.25 Places 1.20, 1.80, 2.60 Exacta: 10.60 CSF: 10.30 Tricast: 64.74 Trifecta: 95.20 Winning Jockey: C J Orr Winning Trainer: Fionn McSharry Distances: 1/2 length, 1 1/2 length Maris Angel 9/4 F 8 ran Non Runners 3 7
15:52 1. 5 Kuiama 9/4 2. 3 Filly Foden 13/8F Tote Win 3.60 Places 1.80, 1.80 Exacta: 7.50 CSF: 6.18 Trifecta: 32.80 Winning Jockey: Lillie Dingle Winning Trainer: Dylan Cunha Distances: Neck Filly Foden 13/8 F 6 ran	16:25 1. 1 Albaydaa 8/11F 2. 3 Ritaal 7/2 Tote Win 1.73 Places , Exacta: 3.40 CSF: 3.53 Trifecta: 5.80 Winning Jockey: S Donohoe Winning Trainer: W J Haggas Distances: 5 1/2 lengths Albaydaa 8/11 F 4 ran
17:00 1. 4 Alshera 11/8F 2. 5 Good Old Days 12/1 Tote Win 2.50 Places 1.70, 2.30 Exacta: 13.70 CSF: 19.27 Trifecta: 60.90 Winning Jockey: Daniel Muscutt Winning Trainer: J & T Gosden Distances: Neck Alshera 11/8 F 6 ran	17:30 1. 6 Solarize 3/1 2. 2 Likealot 5/2F Tote Win 4.00 Places 1.50, 1.90 Exacta: 8.50 CSF: 11.21 Trifecta: 91.40 Winning Jockey: Daniel Muscutt Winning Trainer: C Johnston Distances: 1 1/2 length Likealot 5/2 F 7 ran
18:00 1. 7 Sant Alessio 14/1 2. 8 Ernie's Valentine 7/1 3. 2 Stratocracy 11/2 Tote Win 15.00 Places 3.90, 2.10, 2.00 Exacta: 43.90 CSF: 108.90 Tricast: 615.78 Trifecta: 936.40 Winning Jockey: Mason Paetel Winning Trainer: J Tickle Distances: 1/2 length, Short Head Political Power 11/4 F 9 ran Non Runners 1	18:30 1. 5 Mr Nugget 9/2 2. 13 Northern Blaze 7/1 3. 8 Magic Runner 16/1 Tote Win 5.70 Places 2.20, 3.20, 5.40 Exacta: 62.60 CSF: 39.21 Tricast: 485.69 Trifecta: 638.70 Winning Jockey: Rowan Scott Winning Trainer: D M Simcock Distances: Neck, Short Head Kingsclere 7/2 F 12 ran Non Runners 3

Cracking The Lingfield AW Code

❖ Tuesday November 4 2025

Lingfield AW Code Breaker

We have 2 AW meeting today. Lingfield this monday afternoon is a bumper 9 race card with 7 handicaps to look at. One of them is a 2yo nursery hcp, another is for apprentices only. I will attempt to Crack The Lingfield All Weather code in as few words as possible.

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❖ Jockeys ❖ The jockey I am concentrating on today is Kieran Shoemark who has a 25% strike rate at Lingfield this year.

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❖ Trainers ❖ No particular trainer catches my eye for today's afternoon meeting.

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❖ Draw Bias ❖ No draw bias at Lingfield worthy of note. You want decent jockeys at Lingfield, not an inside or outside draw etc.

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❖ Bet Selection Considerations ❖

• ❖ Check out all of the Kieran Shoemark rides, especially in handicaps, very closely.
• ❖ Also beware anything that has been thrown into a race with a clear and obvious advantage.

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Lingfield AW Jockey Runners

Jockey KIERAN SHOEMARK

• Date | Race | Type | Distance | Trainer | HORSE | ✅ Denotes Selection |
• 4 Nov 2025 12:40 Lingfield 2yo Nursery Hcp 6f Ed Walker LIGHTNING POLKA
• 4 Nov 2025 13:10 Lingfield 2yo Maiden 6f Oliver Cole RAY MON DOUGH
• 4 Nov 2025 14:40 Lingfield Fillies Handicap 2m Rae Guest INLET ✅
• 4 Nov 2025 15:10 Lingfield Handicap 1m Mark Pattinson RAINBOW SIGN ✅
• 4 Nov 2025 16:10 Lingfield Handicap 7f Charlie Fellowes HOLY FIRE ✅

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Lingfield Betting Analysis

2:40 Lingfield ❖ 2m C6 Hcp ❖ Inlet (8/1) has a couple of lengths to find on her last run here over the C&D with Shoemark on board. She has a 2lb reduction weight/mark. Her price has doubled though, so I'll take my chances at the price Shoemark pulls it off. It should be close.

2:40 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 8/1 Inlet (Unp 15/2)

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3:10 Lingfield ❖ 1m C6 Hcp ❖ Rainbow Sign (8/1) returns to run the C&D again after a 1/2 length beating, with a lb more for his troubles and Kieran Shoemark in the saddle. I expect the jockey to find the extra needed for the outright win this time.

3:10 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 8/1 Rainbow Sign (Unp 7/1)

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4:10 Lingfield ❖ 7f C6 Hcp ❖ Holy Fire (9/2) is running at 20lb lower than her best after a losing spell of 21 runs. A win waiting to happen. Shoemark takes the ride again. He'll get her home this time.

24:10 Lingfield ~ Win Bet: 9/2 Holy Fire (2nd 5/1)

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